[PANAHON: Weather Watch Initiative] Typhoon Vamco (Ulysses) Report # 2

Check the latest updates and full from the Manila Observatory’s Panahon: Weather Watch Initiative at panahon.observatory.ph/reports.php

Summary (Issued at 3PM, 11 November 2020)

 INTENSITY and CURRENT LOCATION

 • TY Vamco intensified into a typhoon (JTWC max 1min sustained winds: 139 kph), located ~95 km Northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte, moving west at 20kph (2PM Nov 11, PAGASA)

FORECAST TRACK AND WINDS

• TY Vamco to further intensify to CAT 2 (max 1min sustained winds ~176 kph) before landfall over Polillo Islands tonight, around 8PM Nov 11 (JTWC)

• TY Vamco will traverse C Luzon and forecast to weaken into CAT 1 typhoon (max 1min sustained winds ~120 kph) ~60 km West of Iba, Zambales, morning Nov 12 (JTWC, PAGASA) 

CURRENT RAINFALL

• Satellite image shows wide extent of TY Vamco rain bands affecting entire Philippines

• Areas currently affected by TY Vamco experienced rainfall in the past 3 days

• Center of TY Vamco over Bicol region, previously affected by STY Goni; low to moderate rainfall (~5 to 10 mm/hr) over N and C Luzon and Visayas; heavy rainfall (~20 to 60 mm/hr) over Bicol region

• 24-hr rain total : Heavy rainfall (~150-250 mm) over Bicol, E Samar, S Quezon, E Mindanao; moderate to heavy rainfall (~50-100 mm) over Cagayan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, C Visayas, C Mindanao (2:30 PM Nov 10 – 2:30 PM Nov 11) 

24 HR TOTAL RAINFALL MODEL FORECAST

• Within 24 hrs: Heavy rain (>250 mm) affecting Tuguegarao, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Laguna, Quezon, Bicol, Catanduanes

• After 24 hrs: Moderate rain (>50 mm) over CAR, C Luzon; (~50 mm) over Metro Manila; Low rain (>20 mm) rest of Luzon 

EXPOSURE, VULNERABILITIES, OTHER HAZARDS (IMPACT AREAS)

• Potentially significant amounts of rainfall over regions devastated by TCs [Quinta, Rolly, Siony & Tonyo]

• Rainfall in the next 72 hours may cause severe flooding and landslides in waterlogged areas of Luzon

NOTE: This report (website) contains information on potential impacts based on multiple data sources and scientific information. For official updates and warnings, please refer to PAGASA and other government agencies.   

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