TS Conson (Jolina) Report #1 (4PM)

Source: http://panahon.observatory.ph/reports.php

Summary (Issued at 4PM, 07 September 2021)

INTENSITY and CURRENT LOCATION

  • Center of Tropical Storm (TS) Jolina (TS Conson; JTWC , max 1min sustained winds: 102 kph) was located over Baleno, Masbate, moving west-northwestward at 15kph (2PM Sep 7, DOST-PAGASA)

FORECAST TRACK AND WINDS

  • Expected to remain a Tropical Storm (TS) within the next 24 hr as it makes its next landfall over Southeastern Quezon tonight and cross Central Luzon by Thursday morning

CURRENT RAINFALL

  • Satellite image shows wide extent of TS Jolina rain bands affecting eastern Visayas and southern Bicol
  • As of 1:30 PM to 2:30 PM Sep 7 : moderate to heavy rainfall (~5 to 15 mm/hr) over Metro Manila, Regions 4A, 4B, Central Visayas and Zamboanga peninsula
  • 24-hr total rainfall : heavy rain (~100-250 mm) over Southern Luzon, Central and Eastern Visayas; 

moderate rain (~30-100 mm) over Metro Manila, central Luzon, rest of CALABARZON, Bicol region, rest of central Visayas

  • Total rainfall (from 5AM 6 Sep to 5AM 7 Sep): ~10 mm to 20 mm over Nangka (Marikina City) and Loyola Heights (Quezon City) 

RAINFALL MODEL FORECAST

  • Within 24 hours (from 8AM Sep 7 to 8AM Sep 8): heavy rain (>100-400 mm) expected over Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Albay, Masbate, Sorsogon; moderate to heavy rain (>50-100 mm) over Oriental Mindoro, Capiz, Iloilo, Cebu, Biliran, Leyte, Samar, N Samar; light to moderate rain (>20-50 mm) over Metro Manila, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Polillo Island, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, Antique, Aklan, Guimaras, Negros Occidental
  • Within next 24 hours (from 8AM Sep 8 to 8AM Sep 9): heavy rain (>100-300 mm) to persist over Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque; moderate rain (>30-70 mm) over Tarlac, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, Negros Occidental

RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY

  • Forecast 1-day total rain (from 8AM Sep 7 to 8AM Sep 8) exceeds climatological extreme rain (~30-80 mm) for September especially over S Luzon and Bicol Region

NOTE: This report (website) contains information on potential impacts based on multiple data sources and scientific information. For official updates and warnings, please refer to PAGASA and other government agencies. 

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