TS Conson (Jolina) Report #2 (10AM)

Source: http://panahon.observatory.ph/reports.php

Summary (Issued at 10AM, 08 September 2021) :

INTENSITY and CURRENT LOCATION

  • Center of Tropical Storm (TS) Jolina (TS Conson; JTWC , max 1min sustained winds: 102 kph) was located over San Juan, Batangas moving west-northwestward at 15kph (7AM Sep 8, DOST-PAGASA)

FORECAST TRACK AND WINDS

  • TS Jolina is expected to make landfall over Batangas this morning, cross southern Luzon towards the western coast of Bataan and Zambales, and then finally emerge over the West Philippine Sea by Thursday morning (8AM Sep 8, JTWC)

CURRENT RAINFALL

  • Satellite image shows wide extent of TS Jolina rain bands affecting western Visayas and central and southern Luzon
  • As of 8 AM – 9 AM, Sep 8 : heavy to intense rainfall (above 15 mm/hr) in some parts of Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, western Visayas
  • 24-hr total rainfall : moderate to heavy rainfall (~100-250 mm) in some parts of MIMAROPA, Bicol region 
  • Total rainfall (from 3AM 7 Sep to 3AM 8 Sep): ~20 mm over Nangka (Marikina City) and 13 mm over Loyola Heights (Quezon City)

RAINFALL MODEL FORECAST

  • Within 24 hours (from 2AM Sep 8 to 2AM Sep 9) : heavy rain (>100-400 mm) expected over Metro Manila, Aurora, central Luzon, CALABARZON, Mindoro ; moderate to heavy rain (>50-100 mm) over Palawan; light to moderate rain (>20-50 mm) over Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Antique
  • Within next 24 hours (from 2AM Sep 9 to 2AM Sep 10) : moderate to heavy rain (>30-80 mm) to persist over Palawan, Camarines Sur, Negros Island, Bukidnon ; light to moderate rain (>10-30 mm) over parts of Ilocos region, parts of Region 2, Benguet, central Luzon, Metro Manila, S Luzon, parts of Bicol region, parts of W and E Visayas, NW/NE Mindoro

RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY

  • Forecast 1-day total rain (from 2AM Sep 8 to 2AM Sep 9) exceeds climatological extreme rain (~30-80 mm) for September especially over Metro Manila and S Luzon 

NOTE: This report (website) contains information on potential impacts based on multiple data sources and scientific information. For official updates and warnings, please refer to PAGASA and other government agencies. 

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