TS Conson (Jolina) Report #3 (5PM)

Source: http://panahon.observatory.ph/reports.php

Summary (Issued at 5PM, 08 September 2021) :

INTENSITY and CURRENT LOCATION

  • Center of Tropical Storm (TS) Jolina (TS Conson; JTWC, max 1min sustained winds: 102kph) estimated over San Nicolas, Batangas,

moving northwestward at 15kph (2PM Sep 8, DOST-PAGASA)

FORECAST TRACK AND WINDS

  • TS Jolina is nearest to Metro Manila this afternoon (2PM Sep 8, JTWC); expected to make another landfall over Bataan peninsula tonight,

until it finally emerges over the West Philippine Sea by early morning tomorrow (2PM Sep 8, DOST-PAGASA)

CURRENT RAINFALL

  • As of 2:30PM, Sep 8: Satellite imagery shows wide extent of TS Jolina rain bands affecting southern Luzon, western Visayas 
  • As of 1:30 PM – 2:30PM, Sep 8 : heavy to intense rainfall (above 10 mm/hr) over parts of Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, western Visayas
  • 24-hr total rainfall : moderate to heavy rainfall (~100-250 mm) in Metro Manila, E Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol region, Panay Island
  • Total rainfall (from 1:30PM 7 Sep to 1:30PM 8 Sep) : ~45 mm over Nangka (Marikina City) and 40 mm over Loyola Heights (Quezon City) due to TS Jolina

RAINFALL MODEL FORECAST

  • Within 24 hours (from 8AM Sep 8 to 8AM Sep 9) : heavy rain (>100-400 mm) expected over Metro Manila, parts of central Luzon, CALABARZON, Mindoro, Marinduque;

moderate to heavy rain (>50-100 mm) over S Palawan; light to moderate rain (>20-50 mm) over Aurora, Nueva Ecija

  • As TS Jolina exits Luzon island in the next 24 hours (from 9AM Sep 9 to 8AM Sep 10) : moderate to heavy rain (>30-100 mm) to persist over Palawan, Antique, Negros Island;

light to moderate rain (>10-30 mm) over Ilocos Sur, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, parts of central Luzon, Bicol region, parts of Panay Island, Leyte, N Mindanao and Zamboanga Peninsula

RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY

  • Forecast 1-day total rain (from 8AM Sep 8 to 8AM Sep 9) exceeds climatological extreme rain (~30-80 mm) for September especially over Metro Manila, central and S Luzon 

EXPOSURE, VULNERABILITIES, OTHER HAZARDS (IMPACT AREAS)

  • Communities to be affected by TS Jolina are situated in coastal, low elevation areas with mid to high population density and low poverty incidence making them vulnerable to storm surge and flash floods

NOTE: This report (website) contains information on potential impacts based on multiple data sources and scientific information. For official updates and warnings, please refer to PAGASA and other government agencies.

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